The first week of NFL preseason games are upon us, so hope abounds among the league’s 32 franchises for what the fast-arriving 2024 season could be.
That being said, it’s a necessity to take a pragmatic approach to your team’s actual contention status, despite the potential for genuine surprise. The Houston Texans went from worst to first in the AFC South in the span of a year after drafting both the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year (quarterback C.J. Stroud second overall) and the NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year (defensive end Will Anderson Jr. third overall) in 2023.
So which clubs rightly deserve the label of Super Bowl contender out of the AFC? Which ones are going to be looking ahead toward next April and the 2025 NFL Draft? Which ones are in between? Let’s take a closer look through the AFC’s 16 squads and where they fit in the conference’s six tiers.
Tier 1: In a league of their own (1)
The two-time defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs are and aren’t competing with the other teams in the AFC. They are in the sense that they actually have to beat the other 15 teams in the conference consistently to return to a third Super Bowl in a row, but they’re really in hot pursuit of the ghosts in the NFL’s history books.
Kansas City is angling to become the first team ever to reach the Super Bowl after winning back-to-back Super Bowls as well as the only team to win three consecutive Super Bowls. Two squads have won three consecutive NFL titles, well one in two different runs: the 1929-1931 and the 1965-1967 Green Bay Packers. The last two championships of that second Packers run in the 1960s concluded with the first two Super Bowl games, so Green Bay nearly claimed this distinction over 50 years ago.
The Chiefs have won eight consecutive division titles (the second-longest streak of all time), made the playoffs nine times in a row (tied for the second-longest streak of all time), won a playoff game in six seasons in a row (tied for the second-longest streak of all time) and reached six consecutive seasons (the second-longest streak of all time).
As long as they continue to have three-time Super Bowl MVP Patrick Mahomes at quarterback, nine-time Pro Bowler Travis Kelce at tight end, two-time First Team All-Pro Chris Jones at defensive tackle, Steve Spagnuolo as their defensive coordinator and Andy Reid as their coach, the good times will continue to roll in Kansas City.
Tier 2: Real-deal contenders (3)
Baltimore Ravens, Buffalo Bills, Houston Texans
Yes, the Baltimore Ravens lost some pieces off of the NFL’s best defense. The 2023 iteration of the Ravens became the first team in NFL history to lead or co-lead the NFL in scoring defense (16.5), sacks (60) and takeaways (31, tied with the New York Giants). Losing defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald, now the Seattle Seahawks coach, hurts. Many of their defensive core pieces are intact: Pro Bowl defensive tackle Justin Madubuike, two-time First Team All-Pro linebacker Roquan Smith, three-time Pro Bowl cornerback Marlon Humphrey and 2023 All-Pro safety Kyle Hamilton
However, their offense could be the best it has ever been in the Lamar Jackson era (since 2019). Jackson enters his second season in offensive coordinator Todd Monken’s more modern offense, and he does so with the best running back he has ever played with in Derrick Henry, who signed a two-year $16 million deal this offseason. Henry showed he still has it in 2023, ranking second in rushing yards with 1,167 behind only NFL Offensive Player of the Year Christian McCaffrey and his 1,459.
Henry led the NFL with 280 carries last season, which resulted in a career-worst 4.2 yards per carry behind a struggling Tennessee Titans line, but that was still an above-average figure around the NFL. His 4.2 yards per carry came in as the 18th-best among 44 qualified running backs last season. That production could improve playing alongside Jackson with all the attention his running ability generates. Baltimore had the Chiefs fighting for their life in the 2023 AFC Championship game, and they could easily do that again in 2024.
The Buffalo Bills lead the NFL in scoring offense (28.6 points per game) and scoring defense (19.1 opponent points per game) in the regular season since 2020, making them the first team since the 1990-1993 San Francisco 49ers to lead both categories in a four-year span, and they didn’t play in the Super Bowl during those years. San Francisco did win it all in the 1994 season, the year after this four-year run of dominance. Quarterback Josh Allen, whose 173 passing and rushing touchdowns since 2020 are the most ever in a four-year span, is one of the few players who could lose his WR1 in Stefon Diggs and not see his offense look all that different.
The Houston Texans rose up in 2023 with Stroud and Anderson Jr. becoming just the fourth pair of teammates to earn both rookie of the year awards in the same season. He joined Joe Montana (1989, won NFL MVP) and Tom Brady (2007, won NFL MVP) as the only three quarterbacks in the last 50 seasons to lead the NFL outright in passing yards per game (273.9) and touchdown-to-interception ratio (23-5) in 2023.
Houston then went out and had a historic offseason in 2024: This year’s Texans are the first team in NFL history to add a player coming off a season with 100 or more catches (traded for four-time Pro Bowl wide receiver Stefon Diggs), 1,000 or more rushing yards (traded for Pro Bowl running back Joe Mixon) and 10 or more sacks (defensive ends Danielle Hunter and Denico Autry) in the same offseason, according to CBS Sports Research. Pretty, pretty good.
Tier 3: Fringe contenders (3)
Cincinnati Bengals, New York Jets, Miami Dolphins
The Cincinnati Bengals are either true contenders in the AFC or they miss the postseason entirely in the Joe Burrow era. They missed postseason play when Burrow suffered a season-ending knee injury in 2020 and a season-ending wrist injury in 2023. When he has been healthy, Cincy has either represented the AFC in the Super Bowl (2021) or narrowly lost the AFC Championship game against the Chiefs (2022). The reason the Bengals aren’t in the true contender tier is because Burrow’s health has become a recurring problem. If it were easy to trust his durability, the Bengals would be one tier higher than this one.
The New York Jets’ contention similarly relies upon future Hall of Fame quarterback Aaron Rodgers, who will be 41 on Dec. 2, remaining upright after tearing his Achilles four plays into the 2023 season. The good news is New York went all in on its offensive line this offseason.
Jets offensive line notable additions this offseason
- Signed eight-time Dallas Cowboys Pro Bowl left tackle Tyron Smith
- Signed Baltimore Ravens offensive guard John Simpson
- Traded for Baltimore Ravens right tackle Morgan Moses
- Drafted Penn State All-America left tackle Olumuyiwa Fashanu 11th overall
If one of the oldest NFL rosters in recent memory can stay healthy enough come playoff time, this Jets team has a shot at playing its way toward the top of the conference.
The Miami Dolphins need to prove they can beat other contenders, especially late in the season, to be truly taken seriously. They possessed a 1-6 record against playoff teams and were 10-1 versus all other teams last season. Miami’s -110 point differential against teams to reach the postseason was the second-worst ever by a team that made the playoffs in NFL history, in front of only the 1994 Chicago Bears -112 point differential against teams to make the postseason.
Good news is quarterback Tua Tagovailoa had a healthy 2023, and Tyreek Hill is still one of the NFL’s most dangerous players: Hill has eclipsed 1,700 yards in both seasons in coach Mike McDaniel’s offense catching passes from Tagovailoa, making him the first player in NFL history with multiple seasons of 1,700 or more receiving yards. They need to believe and show they can do it in December and January.
Tier 4: Wild-card wilderness (4)
Indianapolis Colts, Jacksonville Jaguars, Pittsburgh Steelers, Los Angeles Chargers
The Pittsburgh Steelers‘ top 10 scoring defense, led by three-time NFL sacks leader T.J. Watt, the only player to lead the league in sacks in three different seasons, Joey Porter Jr. and Patrick Queen is a high-caliber group. However, it’s unclear if either Russell Wilson or Justin Fields can snap out of either of their respective funks that got them booted off of their previous teams this past offseason.
The Jacksonville Jaguars should be better with a healthier Trevor Lawrence and new center Mitch Morse anchoring this offensive line. Morse could change running back Travis Etienne’s outlook: he amassed another 1,000-yard rushing season in 2023, and he led the league with 89 tackles avoided. However, his efficiency dipped from his rookie season, dropping from 5.1 in 2022 to 3.8 in 2023. The blame could be directed at a Jacksonville offense whose 40.6 Pro Football Focus run-blocking grade ranked as the second-worst in the NFL. Better blocking up front, plus the addition of former 49ers defensive line stalwart Arik Armstead in free agency to go alongside Josh Hines-Allen, whose 19.5 sacks were tied for the second-most in the NFL in 2023, could create a Jaguars team that pushes the Texans for the AFC South crown.
The Indianapolis Colts hope to keep 2023 fourth overall pick quarterback Anthony Richardson on the field this season. They went 9-8 under first-year coach Shane Steichen even though Richardson missed 13 games with a shoulder injury, and All-Pro running back Jonathan Taylor missed seven games between a holdout and an injury. Richardson joined Daunte Culpepper (2000), Cam Newton (2011) and Robert Griffin III (2012) as the only players in NFL history with three or more passing touchdowns and three or more rushing touchdowns in their first four career games. The Colts should be Houston’s toughest divisional opponent in 2023.
The Los Angeles Chargers have Justin Herbert, a quarterback who has the most completions (1,613) and passing yards (17,223) in NFL history spanning a player’s first four seasons, and his 114 career passing touchdowns are tied for the second-most in a player’s first four seasons with Mahomes, behind only Hall of Famer Dan Marino’s 142 from 1983 to 1986. If the Chargers can have a less leaky defense — they surrendered a league-high 49 plays of 25 or more yards, and they ranked bottom five in total yards per game (362.9, 28th) and passing yards per game (249.8, 30th). If new coach Jim Harbaugh and his staff can fix Herbert’s offensive line protection up front after drafting Notre Dame All-America tackle Joe Alt fifth overall and tighten up their defense, this could be a playoff team.
Tier 5: Not so hot in Cleveland (1)
The Cleveland Browns have the defense to contend as their group led the league in total defense (270.2 total yards allowed per game) with edge rusher Myles Garrett winning the 2023 NFL Defensive Player of the Year award. However, quarterback Deshaun Watson has been a horrific investment since they traded a boatload of picks to the Houston Texans and signed him to a five-year, fully guaranteed $230 million contract. He is playing like one of the worst quarterbacks in football since he became a Brown, and he is coming off of having surgery on his throwing shoulder.
* Among 45 QBs with 300+ pass attempts
His once patented, efficient deep ball (43% completion percentage on passes of 20 or more air yards, sixth-best in the NFL with the Texans from 2017-2021) is now longer part of his arsenal thanks to a 28% completion percentage on such throws, which stands as 38th out of 45 quarterbacks with at least 300 passing attempts since 2022. Joe Flacco saved this franchise’s offense a year ago, but it’s unrealistic to expect the same from backup Jameis Winston two years in a row.
Tier 6: How many days until the 2025 NFL Draft?
New England Patriots, Tennessee Titans, Denver Broncos, Las Vegas Raiders
The Las Vegas Raiders and Denver Broncos both angled for one of the 2024 NFL Draft’s top five quarterback prospects, but they both struck out. Denver settled for Bo Nix with the 12th overall pick while the Raiders went best player available and chose Georgia All-America tight end Brock Bowers. Their respective quarterback rooms of Aidan O’Connell and Gardner Minshew (Raiders) and Nix, Zach Wilson and Jarrett Stidham (Broncos) aren’t getting the job done.
The Tennessee Titans had an active offseason bulking up second-year quarterback Will Levis‘ supporting cast: Tennessee inked Jaguars’ top receiver Calvin Ridley on a four-year, $92 million contract, Dallas Cowboys starting running back Tony Pollard to a three-year, $21.75 million contract, Denver Broncos center Lloyd Cushenberry III to a four-year, $50 milllon deal and Bengals longtime slot man Tyler Boyd to a one-year, $2.4 million deal. The Titans also drafted Alabama All-America offensive tackle JC Latham seventh overall. Their offensive line and back seven of their defense are still full of too many question marks to expect contention this season.
Word out of New England Patriots training camp is that third overall pick quarterback Drake Maye has been a rollercoaster so far. This team doesn’t have the offensive playmakers, particularly at wide receiver, to contend without Pro Bowl-caliber quarterback play.
