The NFL’s Week 18 matchup between the 14-2 Detroit Lions and 14-2 Minnesota Vikings is as monumental as it gets. The winner snags the NFC’s No. 1 seed, home-field advantage, and a first-round bye. The loser drops to the No. 5 seed, facing the grueling path of three road games to make the Super Bowl.
For two franchises hunting their first Lombardi Trophy, the stakes couldn’t be higher. While Detroit has been the season’s darling, the Vikings might just be the team to beat. Here’s why Minnesota is a stronger Super Bowl contender than the Lions.
1. The Vikings Have a Better Defense
Defense wins championships, and the Minnesota Vikings have a significant edge here. In December, the Lions allowed a staggering 7.4 yards per play, the highest ever by any team in any December of the Super Bowl era. Detroit gave up 32.5 points per game last month, tied for the worst in the NFL, and became the first team with such poor defensive stats to win three December games.
Historically, teams allowing 30+ points per game in December haven’t won the Super Bowl. The Lions are trending in that direction, with their defense ranked last in expected points added (EPA) per game in December.
In contrast, the Minnesota Vikings ranked above league average, giving up just 20.8 points per game in December. Minnesota’s defense thrives under Brian Flores, tied for the NFL lead in takeaways (31) and third in sacks (47). The Lions, struggling without Aidan Hutchinson, rank 24th in sacks.
2. The Vikings Are Healthier
Injuries have decimated Detroit’s defense, which has used 30 different starters this season—tied for the most since 1950, excluding the 1987 strike season. They currently have 18 players on injured reserve, including six Week 1 defensive starters. While Alex Anzalone, Carlton Davis, and Hutchinson might return late in the playoffs, Detroit would still enter the postseason missing multiple key contributors.
3. Sam Darnold Is Matching Jared Goff
Quarterback play can make or break a Super Bowl run, and Sam Darnold is proving he can go toe-to-toe with Jared Goff. Both quarterbacks have been phenomenal this season:
| Stat | Sam Darnold | Jared Goff |
|---|---|---|
| Wins-Losses | 14-2 | 14-2 |
| Pass Yards | 4,153 | 4,398 |
| Yards/Attempt | 8.2 | 8.7 |
| Touchdowns-INTs | 35-12 | 36-10 |
Darnold’s late-season surge is particularly impressive. He’s thrown 18 touchdown passes with only two interceptions in the last seven games and leads the league in deep-ball efficiency and blitz performance. He’s also excelled under pressure, throwing 13 touchdown passes when pressured—second only to Joe Burrow.
Goff, while in a historic offense averaging 3.04 points per drive, still struggles with mobility and pressure situations. Darnold’s ability to make off-schedule plays could give the Vikings an edge in high-stakes moments.
4. The Detroit Lions’ Defensive Issues Are Unsustainable
Detroit’s offense has been electric, but their defense can’t keep up. No team has ever allowed 30+ points in multiple playoff games and won a Super Bowl, with the 2012 Ravens being the lone exception thanks to Joe Flacco’s historic run.
The Lions’ December games averaged an absurd 70.0 combined points per game—fifth-highest in NFL history. While their offense can win one playoff shootout, winning multiple games this way is unrealistic. In contrast, Minnesota’s balanced approach gives them a more sustainable formula for postseason success.
5. The Minnesota Vikings Are Peaking at the Right Time
Momentum matters in January, and Minnesota has it. They’ve won key games with a defense capable of creating negative plays and a quarterback who thrives under pressure. Meanwhile, Detroit’s injuries are piling up, and their defense is historically bad.
Final Verdict
While both teams have legitimate Super Bowl aspirations, the Minnesota Vikings’ stronger defense, healthier roster, and balanced approach make them the more formidable contender. History shows that defense and availability win championships, and Minnesota checks both boxes when heading into the most critical part of the season.
